A recently completed study by petroleum consulting group Petro Enterprises conservatively estimates a cumulative annual economic uplift of $92 billion from development of natural gas resources in the Marcellus and Utica shale in New York State over a thirty year period. With less conservative assumptions this estimate rises to $123 billion.

The study’s author, David Keefe, analyzed economic data from ten years of drilling experience in the Barnett shale in Texas contained in the Perryman report which concludes that in Texas the cumulative annual economic uplift was $1.14 billion per 1000 wells drilled. Keefe also examined NYS geological data contained in the NYS Museum study led by Richard Nyahay as well as recent drilling data on production and drilling in Pennsylvania.

What distinguishes this study is that it focuses on Marcellus development in New York State and the unique characteristics of the overlapping Marcellus and Utica shales in New York and the potential economic impact. Thus far we have been relying on economic data from experiences in Pennsylvania compiled in the Penn State study, which has been an important tool in forecasting economic impact in both Pennsylvania and New York.

This New York study is important and significant because it allows us to provide more accurate projections based on New York geology.

Only actual drilling will show the levels of gas production in New York and the resulting economic impact. The moratorium on drilling has prevented the collection of production data in New York shale. The Department of Environmental Conservation may start issuing permits this fall and drilling will soon follow.

Then, in all likelihood we will see thousands of jobs created which will revitalize local communities and improve New York’s failing economy.

Click here to download the study.

Disclosure: The author of this study, David Keefe, my father, is a petroleum engineer with a degree from the University of Pittsburgh and an MBA from New York University. Keefe’s more than 50 year career in the petroleum industry started with ExxonMobil and continued with his own company, Petro Enterprises which has been involved in oil and gas consulting around the globe.